Tribute to the military

Sunday, September 30, 2007


Posted by permission of the author, Dr. Jack Wheeler, To the Point News


One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?
The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."
All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

1 comment:

sdeanov said...

First, I would take that so-called Indian officer’s story with few grains of salt. In fact Iran has no military relations with India, and after checking the news from Iran “during and after the operation” there is no news about any visiting Indian whatsoever. The fabricated story originated from an Indian newspaper after the Dayr Az-Zawr matter. Moreover, why would any sane moron in Iran speak to a lowly Indian about possible US or Israeli plans knowing quite well the close relations between India and Israel? This whole Indian officer story makes no sense, because it’s a clumsy fabrication.

As to the bombing operation itself; The IAF aircrafts never entered Syrian airspace. The mission aircrafts flew over the Mediterranean to Turkey “Drop tanks dumped in southern Turkey” to Iraq flying over Dhok, Mosul and the Al-Anbar provinces along the Syrian border. The mission planned with Turkish and US coordination “the Turks later claimed they had no idea why the Israelis dumped their drop tanks inside Turkey.” The unfinished empty building “target” was hit by two AGM 154 missiles from a standoff range from inside Iraq “over Al-Anbar province.” So, there was never any chance for Syrians to detect the Israeli aircraft. There is no question about IAF’s operational skills, but the matter has no bearing on whether the Russian SAM systems were lousy or otherwise. The attack took place way beyond what a lowly Pantsyr-S1 could detect or engage. Moreover, the region south and south east of Dayr Az-Zawr is an empty desert with no inhabitans or military instalations of any sort beside a border police check point across from Al-Qa’eem, which is small border twon in Iraq.

This whole story is blown out of proportion since most of Syria’s air defenses are 1950s and 1960s vintage USSR era junk. In fact even lowly Jordanian Air force could have done the same operation with ease, because Syria’s armed forces are the most disorganized bunch of idiots you can find. They lack training, cohesive command and control and they are technologically backward. So, where is the beef and why would Iran is in such frantic state of PANIC . . .?

As to Israel bombing Iran; that’s a bit on the dreamy side because Israel simply does not have the assets to accomplish any success against Iran, that’s especially true if you measure the distances, and the sheer number of the Iranian targets. If the plot was that easy; USA would have done the task long time ago, but that’s not the case. So, never under estimate your foe or pretended enemy . . . .