Portents of A Nuclear Al-Qaeda

Courtesy of Washington and by permission from the author, David Ignatius, Link to the article: Here

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is paid to think about the unthinkable. As the Energy Department's director of intelligence, he's responsible for gathering information about the threat that a terrorist group will attack America with a nuclear weapon.

With his shock of white hair and piercing eyes, Mowatt-Larssen looks like a man who has seen a ghost. And when you listen to a version of the briefing he has been giving recently to President Bush and other top officials, you begin to understand why. He is convinced that al-Qaeda is trying to acquire a nuclear bomb that will leave the ultimate terrorist signature -- a mushroom cloud.

We've all had enough fear-mongering to last a lifetime. Indeed, we have become so frightened of terrorism since Sept. 11, 2001, that we have begun doing the terrorists' job for them by undermining the legal framework of our democracy. And truly, I wish I could dismiss Mowatt-Larssen's analysis as the work of an overwrought former CIA officer with too many years in the trenches.

But it's worth listening to his warnings -- not because they induce more numbing paralysis but because they might stir sensible people to take actions that could detect and stop an attack. That's why his boss, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, is encouraging him to speak out. Mowatt-Larssen doesn't want to anguish later that he didn't sound the alarm in time.

Mowatt-Larssen has been gathering this evidence since a few weeks after Sept. 11, when then-CIA Director George Tenet asked him to create a new branch on weapons of mass destruction in the agency's counterterrorism center. He helped Tenet prepare the chapter on al-Qaeda's nuclear efforts that appears in Tenet's memoir, " At the Center of the Storm." Now that the uproar over Tenet's mistaken "slam dunk" assessment of the Iraqi threat has died down, it's worth rereading this account. It provides a chilling, public record of al-Qaeda's nuclear ambitions.

Mowatt-Larssen argues that for nearly a decade before Sept. 11, al-Qaeda was seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction. As early as 1993, Osama bin Laden offered $1.5 million to buy uranium for a nuclear device, according to testimony presented in federal court in February 2001. When the al-Qaeda leader was asked in 1998 if he had nuclear or chemical weapons, he responded: "Acquiring weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty. If I have indeed acquired these weapons, then I thank God for enabling me to do so."

Even as al-Qaeda was preparing to fly its airplane bombs into buildings, the group was also trying to acquire nuclear and biological capabilities. In August 2001, bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, met around a campfire with Pakistani scientists from a group called Umma Tameer-E-Nau to discuss how al-Qaeda could build a nuclear device. Al-Qaeda also had an aggressive anthrax program that was discovered in December 2001 after bin Laden was driven from his haven in Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda proclaimed a religious rationale to justify the WMD attacks it was planning. In June 2002, a Kuwaiti-born cleric named Suleiman Abu Ghaith posted a statement on the Internet saying that "al-Qaeda has the right to kill 4 million Americans" in retaliation for U.S. attacks against Muslims. And in May 2003, at the same time Saudi operatives of al-Qaeda were trying to buy three Russian nuclear bombs, a cleric named Nasir al-Fahd issued a fatwa titled "A Treatise on the Legal Status of Using Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Infidels." Interrogations of al-Qaeda operatives confirmed that the planning was serious. Al-Qaeda didn't yet have the materials for a WMD attack, but it wanted them.

Most chilling of all was Zawahiri's decision in March 2003 to cancel a cyanide attack in the New York subway system. He told the plotters to stand down because "we have something better in mind." What did that mean? More than four years later, we still don't know.

After 2004, the WMD trail went cold, according to Mowatt-Larssen. Many intelligence analysts have concluded that al-Qaeda doesn't have nuclear capability today. Mowatt-Larssen argues that a more honest answer is: We don't know.

So what to do about this spectral danger? The first requirement, says Mowatt-Larssen, is to try to visualize it. What would it take for al-Qaeda to build a bomb? How would it assemble the pieces? How would the United States and its allies deploy their intelligence assets so that they could detect a plot before it was carried out? How would we reinvent intelligence itself to avert this ultimate catastrophe?

A terrorist nuclear attack, as Tenet wrote in his book, would change history. If we can see how this story might end, perhaps we can deflect the arrow before it hits its target.

The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.

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Technorati tags: george tenet, cia, iran, nuclear weapons, al qaeda, David Ignatius, Mowatt-Larssen, Bush, Energy Department, DOE, Osama bin Laden, wmd, new york subway, Nasir al-Fahd, fatwa, Suleiman Abu Ghaith, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Pakistani scientist, us intelligence, Iran, Iraq, global war on terror, bin laden, Umma Tameer-E-Nau

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The Mother of Modern Terrorism

Courtesy of CBNNews.com

WASHINGTON - Iran still nags the U.S. almost 30 years following the hostage crisis that helped bring down a presidency.

The faces have changed but the White House still faces off with Tehran.

This time it's over charges of supplying weapons used to kill Americans in Iraq, pursuing nuclear weapons calling for the end of Israel.

The Mother of Modern Terrorism

Iran declared war on the U.S. in 1979. They've been killing Americans non-stop ever since then, and no American president has ever responded.

Conservative Michael Ledeen, author of The Iranian Time Bomb, calls Iran the "mother of modern terrorism." He says three decades of failed American diplomacy have continued under President Bush.

"As far as I can tell he doesn't have an Iran policy," Leeden said. "Even after several years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, where it was quite clear we were drowning in information that the Iranians were supporting both sides of the terror war against us, where Iranian weapons, Iranian intel agents, even Iranian troops were on the ground killing Americans.

Even then for the longest time our soldiers were told take it easy on the Iranians. It's only in the last several months that we've been able finally to shoot Iranians, capture Iranians and so forth and look at the reaction. The Iranian regime is furious, screaming."

Ledeen, whose son is a Marine now serving in Iraq, says the U.S. would be justified to take out terror-training camps inside Iran.

"We know Iraqis are brought into Iran for training in bases in Iran, and then they're sent back into Iraq, armed, trained, funded by the Iranians," he said. "And they come into Iraq to kill our guys."

U.S. Options Regarding Iran

Contrary to his image as eager for war with Iran, Ledeen is opposed to a U.S. bombing or invasion of Iran.

"Iran is a big country - 70 million people. Great killers. Very fanatical. Hate us passionately. You want to take them on, you have to be really serious. It takes a lot of effort. Lot of risk. Lot of money will probably cost some lives, if not our theirs. And it's unpleasant and there's every chance that you'll fail," Leeden said.

What are U.S. options? A White House push for tougher U.N. sanctions has been blocked by Russia and China. Critics of continued diplomacy question how America can bargain with Iran's mullahs who believe America's destruction is sanctioned by god.

"We've offered every carrot and brandished every stick by now," Leeden said. "You know, Einstein's definition of a madman is somebody who keeps doing the same thing, hoping to get a different result some day."

Iranian Revolution?

Ledeen believes a more lethal weapon exists: revolution.

"If you did a little check list on conditions for revolution: economic misery, political opposition to the regime, suffering by the people, long traditions of self-government and awareness of modern democracy and how it works and so forth. Iran fulfils every condition," he said.

"So Iran, if you're looking for a country where the people hate the regime, we know from the regime itself, from it's own public opinion polls, that 70 plus percent of the Iranian people hate the regime," Ledeen said.

But he believes that would require unprecedented action from the United States.

"They're terribly embittered right now because this administration has given all kinds of speeches about how they stand behind the Iranians - 'We hope Iran will become free, and so forth' - but we've never done anything. They are waiting to see us do something to support them.

America's concerns for its soldiers in Iraq, Israeli security on the line and a potential nuclear threat, the Iranian time bomb is ticking.

It's a bomb that could set off a diplomatic breakthrough , or a countdown to war.

INSIDE IRAN:

• Signs of the Apocalypse
• A Rising Chorus
• The Young and the Restless
• The Ultimate Martyrdom
• Truth and its Consequences

Technorati tags: iran, america, apocalypse, martyrdom, time bomb, iranians, terrorism, iraq, tehran, shah of iran, jimmy carter, nuclear option, israel, iranian revolution

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The War: According to the People Who Are Already There.

Email from Michael Yon:  Link to the online version.

Greetings:

Iraq is on the mend, al Qaeda is on the run, and the civil war has abated to a point where the term "civil war" no longer applies.

Accurate war coverage is increasingly important.  Even prominent seemingly well-informed persons can get it wrong, such as retired Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez who previously commanded the war in Iraq.  His recent public statements –selectively excerpted and then widely dispersed by the hot winds of media – made it clear that this former senior commander is far out of touch with the current situation. 
But there are commanders with a finger on the pulse. 

When earlier this year I wrote about the 1-4 CAV transforming an abandoned seminary in a Baghdad neighborhood that had been decimated by civil war, the "surge" had not even begun; but already pundits, politicians and editors had declared it a failure. Though I'd spent only a few days with LTC Crider and his 1-4 CAV soldiers at the new COP Amanche, I ended the dispatch on a note of hope based on observation. I recently received an email from LTC Crider with an update on that Baghdad neighborhood.  Please read "Achievements of the Human Heart" and see for yourself.

I was in al Basra province when I saw news reports claiming that Basra city had descended into chaos in the wake of an announcement about the draw down of British Soldiers.  I emailed the facts about Basra to several bloggers who hold the media accountable, and the resulting effort got the attention of Tom Foreman who anchors CNN's "This Week at War."  We were able to make a CNN interview, and the result is a segment that accurately reflects a complex and changing situation.  Bravo to CNN for setting the record straight, and to the tireless bloggers who are making a substantial difference in the way news about the war is delivered.

There are major developments to share with readers in upcoming dispatches. If things go at-least-mostly according to plan (which is all we can hope for in war), and if I can rely on the help of readers who share my frustration with the lack of accurate reporting, we can  significantly widen the stream of news flowing from Iraq so more people can obtain a truer picture.  This will require the will and generosity of readers.  But more on that, soon.

 
Michael Yon
Basra, Iraq

‘Grassroots’ will be catalyst for change in Baghdad, commander says

Courtesy of Multi-National Forces - Iraq

Saturday, 22 September 2007

In this file photo, U.S. Army Maj. Kevin Speilman, of Headquarters Company, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, listens to translation while speaking with village leadership during operations on the outskirts of Mosul. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Christopher Hubenthal.

BAGHDAD — The most encouraging recent development in Baghdad is the willingness of citizens to step forward and partner with Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in defeating terrorism, the U.S. commander in charge of Coalition forces in the city said today.

Almost 8,000 Iraqi security volunteers are currently employed around the city and are being trained and integrated into the ISF, Army Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr., commander of Multi-National Division Baghdad, told Pentagon reporters via satellite. All over Baghdad, these volunteers are being trained by ISF and are partnering with them in operations, resulting in security gains, he said.

“I believe this shift with the population stepping forward has every potential to become the catalyst that brings truly enduring change for the better, certainly here in Baghdad and perhaps across the nation,” Fil said. “And I really sense the momentum … on both sides of the river in Baghdad and on the streets when we're working with the most senior Iraqi officials that I deal with.”

Partnerships of local citizens with the Iraqi government and security forces are another step forward in efforts to reduce violence and protect the population of Baghdad, Fil said. Since Operation Fardh al-Qanoon, which stands for “enforcing the law,” began in mid-February, overall attacks in Baghdad are down by more than 50 percent, he said. Small-arms attacks, car bombs, mortar and rocket attacks are all down by more than 50 percent. There also has been a steep decline in the number of improvised-explosive-device detonations, which he credited to the arrests of key cell members and an increased ability to find weapons caches.

Coalition and Iraqi forces have been making significant progress in securing Baghdad neighborhoods, Fil said. Before Operation Fardh al-Qanoon, about 70 percent of neighborhoods were in the “disruption” phase, which means they had not been cleared of insurgent activity, he said. Now, only 16 percent of neighborhoods are in disruption, and about 56 percent are in the “control” or “retain” phase, which means Coalition and Iraqi forces have a sustained presence.

“We've had some tough days battling al Qaeda and criminal militia, but here in the Multi-National Division-Baghdad we keep pounding away at our enemy, pushing him daily, and we've seen positive results from our persistent pressure,” Fil said.

The general acknowledged that while attack levels are down, the level of violence is still too high. In the first two weeks of September, extremist groups conducted mortar, rocket and explosively formed projectile attacks, rocket-propelled-grenade attacks against tanks, and surface-to-air missile launches. These attacks have continued despite Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s recent call for an end to violence, Fil noted. And while the Coalition is showing restraint in dealing with those who uphold that pledge, they will not show the same restraint in dealing with criminal militias armed by Iranian elements, he said.

The conditions of essential services throughout Baghdad range from very good to very poor, Fil said. Brigade combat teams and provincial reconstruction teams continue to work with local government officials and the government of Iraq on a variety of projects, including water, sewer, electricity and trash collection, and monitor and assist with fuel distribution to prevent criminal militias from interfering with or attempting to profit from fuel sales, he said.

“There is much work ahead, but what I see here in Baghdad is steady progress,” he said. “As the population senses a change in their security for the better and a change in local conditions, they are becoming more and more involved in both aspects in their communities. And that progress is a testament to our Soldiers, to the Iraqi Security Forces, and to the government of Iraq and the citizens of Baghdad, and they've all taken courageous steps forward and committed to taking a stand here against terror and against those who intimidate and murder.”

(Story by Sara Wood, American Forces Press Service)

In other developments throughout Iraq:

•           Youth soccer teams in the Zafaraniyah section of eastern Baghdad have a new set of equipment and uniforms thanks to Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces.

•           Iraqi Security Forces, with U.S. Special Forces as advisers, destroyed a major explosives cache near Sinjar in Ninewah Province Sept. 19 while conducting operations to disrupt al Qaeda in Iraq networks.