Portents of A Nuclear Al-Qaeda

Courtesy of Washington and by permission from the author, David Ignatius, Link to the article: Here

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is paid to think about the unthinkable. As the Energy Department's director of intelligence, he's responsible for gathering information about the threat that a terrorist group will attack America with a nuclear weapon.

With his shock of white hair and piercing eyes, Mowatt-Larssen looks like a man who has seen a ghost. And when you listen to a version of the briefing he has been giving recently to President Bush and other top officials, you begin to understand why. He is convinced that al-Qaeda is trying to acquire a nuclear bomb that will leave the ultimate terrorist signature -- a mushroom cloud.

We've all had enough fear-mongering to last a lifetime. Indeed, we have become so frightened of terrorism since Sept. 11, 2001, that we have begun doing the terrorists' job for them by undermining the legal framework of our democracy. And truly, I wish I could dismiss Mowatt-Larssen's analysis as the work of an overwrought former CIA officer with too many years in the trenches.

But it's worth listening to his warnings -- not because they induce more numbing paralysis but because they might stir sensible people to take actions that could detect and stop an attack. That's why his boss, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, is encouraging him to speak out. Mowatt-Larssen doesn't want to anguish later that he didn't sound the alarm in time.

Mowatt-Larssen has been gathering this evidence since a few weeks after Sept. 11, when then-CIA Director George Tenet asked him to create a new branch on weapons of mass destruction in the agency's counterterrorism center. He helped Tenet prepare the chapter on al-Qaeda's nuclear efforts that appears in Tenet's memoir, " At the Center of the Storm." Now that the uproar over Tenet's mistaken "slam dunk" assessment of the Iraqi threat has died down, it's worth rereading this account. It provides a chilling, public record of al-Qaeda's nuclear ambitions.

Mowatt-Larssen argues that for nearly a decade before Sept. 11, al-Qaeda was seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction. As early as 1993, Osama bin Laden offered $1.5 million to buy uranium for a nuclear device, according to testimony presented in federal court in February 2001. When the al-Qaeda leader was asked in 1998 if he had nuclear or chemical weapons, he responded: "Acquiring weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty. If I have indeed acquired these weapons, then I thank God for enabling me to do so."

Even as al-Qaeda was preparing to fly its airplane bombs into buildings, the group was also trying to acquire nuclear and biological capabilities. In August 2001, bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, met around a campfire with Pakistani scientists from a group called Umma Tameer-E-Nau to discuss how al-Qaeda could build a nuclear device. Al-Qaeda also had an aggressive anthrax program that was discovered in December 2001 after bin Laden was driven from his haven in Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda proclaimed a religious rationale to justify the WMD attacks it was planning. In June 2002, a Kuwaiti-born cleric named Suleiman Abu Ghaith posted a statement on the Internet saying that "al-Qaeda has the right to kill 4 million Americans" in retaliation for U.S. attacks against Muslims. And in May 2003, at the same time Saudi operatives of al-Qaeda were trying to buy three Russian nuclear bombs, a cleric named Nasir al-Fahd issued a fatwa titled "A Treatise on the Legal Status of Using Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Infidels." Interrogations of al-Qaeda operatives confirmed that the planning was serious. Al-Qaeda didn't yet have the materials for a WMD attack, but it wanted them.

Most chilling of all was Zawahiri's decision in March 2003 to cancel a cyanide attack in the New York subway system. He told the plotters to stand down because "we have something better in mind." What did that mean? More than four years later, we still don't know.

After 2004, the WMD trail went cold, according to Mowatt-Larssen. Many intelligence analysts have concluded that al-Qaeda doesn't have nuclear capability today. Mowatt-Larssen argues that a more honest answer is: We don't know.

So what to do about this spectral danger? The first requirement, says Mowatt-Larssen, is to try to visualize it. What would it take for al-Qaeda to build a bomb? How would it assemble the pieces? How would the United States and its allies deploy their intelligence assets so that they could detect a plot before it was carried out? How would we reinvent intelligence itself to avert this ultimate catastrophe?

A terrorist nuclear attack, as Tenet wrote in his book, would change history. If we can see how this story might end, perhaps we can deflect the arrow before it hits its target.

The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.

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Technorati tags: george tenet, cia, iran, nuclear weapons, al qaeda, David Ignatius, Mowatt-Larssen, Bush, Energy Department, DOE, Osama bin Laden, wmd, new york subway, Nasir al-Fahd, fatwa, Suleiman Abu Ghaith, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Pakistani scientist, us intelligence, Iran, Iraq, global war on terror, bin laden, Umma Tameer-E-Nau

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The War: According to the People Who Are Already There.

Email from Michael Yon:  Link to the online version.

Greetings:

Iraq is on the mend, al Qaeda is on the run, and the civil war has abated to a point where the term "civil war" no longer applies.

Accurate war coverage is increasingly important.  Even prominent seemingly well-informed persons can get it wrong, such as retired Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez who previously commanded the war in Iraq.  His recent public statements –selectively excerpted and then widely dispersed by the hot winds of media – made it clear that this former senior commander is far out of touch with the current situation. 
But there are commanders with a finger on the pulse. 

When earlier this year I wrote about the 1-4 CAV transforming an abandoned seminary in a Baghdad neighborhood that had been decimated by civil war, the "surge" had not even begun; but already pundits, politicians and editors had declared it a failure. Though I'd spent only a few days with LTC Crider and his 1-4 CAV soldiers at the new COP Amanche, I ended the dispatch on a note of hope based on observation. I recently received an email from LTC Crider with an update on that Baghdad neighborhood.  Please read "Achievements of the Human Heart" and see for yourself.

I was in al Basra province when I saw news reports claiming that Basra city had descended into chaos in the wake of an announcement about the draw down of British Soldiers.  I emailed the facts about Basra to several bloggers who hold the media accountable, and the resulting effort got the attention of Tom Foreman who anchors CNN's "This Week at War."  We were able to make a CNN interview, and the result is a segment that accurately reflects a complex and changing situation.  Bravo to CNN for setting the record straight, and to the tireless bloggers who are making a substantial difference in the way news about the war is delivered.

There are major developments to share with readers in upcoming dispatches. If things go at-least-mostly according to plan (which is all we can hope for in war), and if I can rely on the help of readers who share my frustration with the lack of accurate reporting, we can  significantly widen the stream of news flowing from Iraq so more people can obtain a truer picture.  This will require the will and generosity of readers.  But more on that, soon.

 
Michael Yon
Basra, Iraq

Petraeus explains Iraq’s link to U.S. security, responds to criticism

Courtesy of Multi-National Force Iraq

Thursday, 13 September 2007

Army Gen. David Petraeus, commander, Multi-National Force-Iraq (right), and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Peter Pace, fly to the Green Zone and survey the sites along the way in Baghdad, July 16, 2007. File photo by Staff Sgt. D. Myles Cullen, Joint Combat Camera Center.

WASHINGTON — The top commander and diplomat in Iraq told reporters at the National Press Club today that what happens in Iraq is critical to long-term U.S. security.

“Achieving our national interest in Iraq is very important” and a critical part of the overall U.S. national strategy to make the country safer, said Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of Multi-National Force-Iraq. “The central front of al Qaeda’s global war on terror is in Iraq.”

Petraeus was joined at the Press Club event by U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan C. Crocker.

Petraeus repeated the statement he made yesterday to the Senate Armed Services Committee that he couldn’t spell out exactly what impact al Qaeda resurgence in Iraq might have on the U.S. homeland.

“I was trying very hard yesterday to avoid becoming more than the MNFI commander,” he said. “And so when I was asked about the global war on terrorism, I thought that that perhaps is a question for those who are carrying out the global war on terrorism. I'm carrying out one piece of that, which is the part that is prosecuted inside Iraq.”

Petraeus said the U.S. strategy in Iraq is showing progress in flushing out al Qaeda and other extremists and reducing violence. Coalition and Iraqi operations have left al Qaeda “considerably diminished” and “much more on the run” than Petraeus said he could recall since they established themselves there. “We believe that al Qaeda in Iraq is off balance,” he said.

He emphasized, however, that evidence shows al Qaeda hasn’t given up and continues working to regain territory it’s lost. The terrorist group remains “very dangerous,” he said.

Petraeus said he considers al Qaeda in Iraq “the wolf closest to the sled” because it’s been behind the most horrific attacks in Iraq and has generated the most ethno-sectarian violence. Particularly since the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra in February 2006, this violence has been “tearing the fabric of Iraqi society,” he said.

Crocker said he’s convinced that any al Qaeda resurgence in Iraq would be devastating, not just to Iraq, but also to the United States. “We have to assume that anywhere al Qaeda can find operating room, space, the ability to organize … (and) consolidate, they are going to use that to come after us,” he said.

Petraeus and Crocker told reporters the troop surge in Iraq is showing progress in countering the threat al Qaeda and other extremists pose. They pointed to evidence of that progress: reduced violence, greater Iraqi security force responsibility, and increased tribal cooperation with Coalition efforts.

This assessment, which they delivered over the past two days to the Senate and House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees, drew sharp criticism from some corners and, in some cases, personal attacks.

The general, who stated at all three congressional hearings this week that his assessment reflected his views alone -- not those of the Pentagon, the White House or Congress -- said a poem by Rudyard Kipling proved helpful as his integrity came under attack.

Kipling’s poem, “If,” begins, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you. …” It goes on to talk about the importance of trusting yourself when others doubt you and of maintaining your principles even when you’re hated, lied about and condemned.

Pressed to comment on the attacks against him, Petraeus offered a simple response. “I disagree with the message of those who are exercising the 1st Amendment right that generations of soldiers have sought to preserve for Americans,” he said. “Some of it was just flat completely wrong, and the rest is at least more than arguable.”

Petraeus showed more of his human side as today’s news conference opened, initially telling reporters he planned to begin by reviewing the statement he’d made during the past two days of hearings.

“Actually, I’m not sure if even I can bear giving the shortened version of my opening statement for a fourth time,” he laughed. “And I know you don’t want to hear it for a fourth time.”

(Story by Donna Miles American Forces Press Service)

In other developments throughout Iraq:

• Coalition forces killed one terrorist and detained 13 suspected terrorists during raids Wednesday to disrupt al-Qaeda in Iraq’s ability to operate in central Iraq.

• Two people were freed from captivity and four others arrested and charged with kidnapping after a tip-driven raid was conducted by soldiers of the 4th Battalion, 5th Division, 6th Iraqi Army at the Salhiyah Apartments Saturday.

"Grass Roots" organization exposed by Greyhawk

I shall try to contain my anger so I can write this. Over at Mudville Gazette you will be able to read about a Leftists plan to fool you into thinking you are reading about troops that are simply expressing their opinion. This could not be further from the truth. Oh, it may be their opinion, by they are being helped by the same PR firms that helped Cindy Sheehan! Take from that little tidbit what you will. Whatever you do, please read this! Greyhawk has put a lot of time, effort and research into this. Thank you.

Hat tip: Blackfive.